When I said that by 2035 we could have 3 times as many cars as human beings, obviously that was a prediction about the predominance of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). I think we should begin to retire self-driving/driverless car, as it will eventually sound as hokey as horseless carriage.
In part this is because it attempts to define a thing in terms of a paradigm that will no longer be familiar. Yet, it will also sound hokey because it suggests that AVs are basically like today’s cars but with no driver. That suggestion is likely to appear comical in retrospect.
My guess is that the majority of AVs will not only, not carry passengers but not interact with humans unless they explicitly need something that only a human can provide, such as specialized repair or maintenance.
The majority of AVs will live in their own world, interacting only with other AVs and a vast array of infrastructure as they form the backbone of a human-less global supply chain. They will pick up goods from the point of production and ship and sort them all the way to the final consumer without ever meeting human in between.
They will likely be the most powerful force for globalization we have ever seen.
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Wednesday ~ May 16th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Brett
Too true. The automated cars get most of the attention, but what about if or when all cargo transport by sea and air is automated as well? We’re almost to the point where planes can fly completely on auto-pilot from take-off to landing (if not there already), and it’s probably not too difficult to automate ships if you have GPS. If you went further, and had automated loading/unloading locations working 24/7, the productivity and efficiency gains would be staggering.
Wednesday ~ May 16th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
rjs
reminds me of the “kitchens of the future” which were popular in the 50s; all automatic, the food would cook itself, freeing the housewife of drudgery…
Wednesday ~ May 16th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
frankschmitt
I vote for Autonomobile.
Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 12:29 am
Morgan Warstler
You know that driverless cars = <1 car per family, right?
Or at least the argument for it.
Perhaps you could explain – is this just a Africa gets the Internet too argument?
Or do cars become ugly $7K boxy things since they dont have accidents anymore?
Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 9:32 am
cig
I could buy that autonomous vehicles do supply chain jobs, but what are they going to carry around all day? at >3 per human being, unless they’re micro size, we’ll have to “consume” 50 ipads a day each or something… if nothing else technology tends to make legacy objects redundant (e.g. people used paper books and magazines until recently, in 10 years only the amish and collectors of retro items will, 3d printing removes some of the old school supply chain alogether, etc). Industry is likely to go the way of agriculture, and become an ever shrinking part of the economy as tech frees us to do other things.
Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
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Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Stones Cry Out - If they keep silent… » Things Heard: e221v5
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Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
IVV
If cars become autonomous, I’d imagine that the incentives for the consumer to buy them as we do right now become considerably less. If I need a vehicle, get out the smartphone, press a button, a car arrives to take me. It would be like having taxis everywhere. Garages as places to store our cars would start to disappear (although in many places, garages aren’t used for cars anymore). Why have parking lots when the car can drop you off in front of the building and then drive off on its own? But then the next question: why have buses? Subways? Just let autonomous cars give everyone in town door-to-door service.
Thursday ~ May 17th, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Jeff FIsher
I like the thought of re-purposing garages.
Lots of old Victorian’s in San Francisco have garages that used to be ballrooms. Maybe they can be converted back?
More likely we will just fill them up with junk as we do today.
Tuesday ~ May 22nd, 2012 at 9:49 pm
voodoo economist
in reply to brett –
automated air transport? do we need a new name for cruise missiles?
someone should ask the question of how to prevent self-driving cars becoming land-based cruise missiles, aka car bombs.
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Tuesday ~ July 28th, 2015 at 9:21 pm
Boycott the Lenders (@bgamall)
So, why would we want more globalization? I think globalists like Cheney and other war mongers are idiots.