Yes, US Auto production is coming back, but that’s not what I mean. Here is a prediction – bold but not unreasonable. Right now there are roughly 1 Billon cars on the road. The IEA predicts that there will be 2.5 Billion. I predict that by 2035 there will be more the 3 times as many autos in the world as human beings.
Modeled Behavior 
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Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 9:21 am
Becky Hargrove
No need for the death of the automobile! We just need to plan for new communities in which the automobile is not always necessary.
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Y. Alekseyev (@yalekseyev)
Given that the US is currently at something like 0.8 autos per person, I am willing to bet against you in cold hard 2035 dollars that the prediction of 3 autos per person IN THE WORLD by 2035 is absurd. Happy to make arrangements for the bet offline.
I think you’re one of the best econ bloggers out there and, come to think of it, one of the best thinkers generally – but it turns out everyone’s fallible.
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 10:58 am
rjs
you figure a lot of us will die?
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Arthur
Even with autodriving cars?
Man, i would bet 500 brazillian bucks on this one agaist you.
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Gepap
What basis is there for thinking there will be even 5% more cars than people, as opposed to 200% more cars than people?
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Apex
Assuming a population of slightly over 8 billion which I think is pretty close to the current projections that would give you 25 billion autos. At standard auto parking space sizes those autos would more than file up every square inch of the state of New Mexico and more just to store them. Over 130,000 square miles. That doesn’t even mention the energy needed to fuel them. There is just no way to see a path to this kind of growth. Well maybe one way ….. iCar. 🙂
Thursday ~ May 10th, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Benny Lava
I predict that you are wrong! With rapidly aging countries and rising fuel costs, such a projection is absurd. By 2050 global population will start to shrink.
Friday ~ May 11th, 2012 at 5:11 am
reason
You are predicting massive starvation?
Friday ~ May 11th, 2012 at 5:16 am
reason
Yes it could happen – one asteroid or one super volcano might do – the people die but the cars remain -but otherwise why would anybody want three cars – where (in an increasingly urbanised world) would they park them? What would we use to fuel them. What was that pithy statement about the exponential and people not being able to understand its implications again?
Friday ~ May 11th, 2012 at 7:21 am
JL
There is only one way this will happen, a revolution in transportation: small vehicles that drive themselves autonomously (and in packs) in order to deliver goods.
Brad Templeton calls them deliverbots: http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/deliverbots.html
Yes, I see this happening. It’s much, much more efficient: it saves on labour, energy, oil, road capacity and road maintenance – read Brad’s article.
Friday ~ May 11th, 2012 at 10:39 am
cig
Is this a typo? 1 car for every 3 human by 2035 would be credible. Or are you counting all dead cars that will be in the junk yard by then?
Saturday ~ March 2nd, 2013 at 10:27 am
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